Politics, Views

Five Questions

by Mike Copeland | 9, Add your Comment | Jan 26, 2010

A friend from college who amuses himself by posing questions to several of us in an effort to expose our ignorance has done it again. He sent out a series of questions (in italics below) and a short preamble. The preamble suggested that all economic hell was about to break out and the two competitive, and sometimes compatible, economic orthodoxies by which we govern our nation were no longer applicable.

My friend quoted a bond trader, Bill Gross of PIMCO, as saying these orthodoxies are: 1) the Keynesian notion of deficit financing of domestic programs and 2) the JFK/Reagan belief in tax cuts as primary stimulus and all around economic and political elixir. My friend went on to say that Gross did not believe either of these “orthodoxies” was particularly helpful in our current situation.

My friend went further by positing the questions contained below. I have posted the questions, along with my answers. I hope you will give these some thought and grace us with your answers as well.

I am in hopes of hearing from Brenden on these matters. In the spirit of this hope, I hasten to say, Brenden, I believe you are real.* Unlike some, I do not believe you are but a shadow, cast by nefarious forces of the far right in order to confuse and darken our little corner of paradise. So, have at it if you will.

The questions as presented to me, and others, by Walter Ralph Steven Meigs, III, of the Mobile Meigs’:

What do you guys think?

The short answer to this question is I am not sure what I think.

The longer answer is I suspect the question is too narrowly defined, in that it relates to whatever role government should be playing. At least part of what is happening has nothing to do with inflation, debt policies, taxation, domestic spending, etc. At least part of the current kerfuffle can be attributed to the vast changes being wrought in business, economics and culture by rapid technological changes. This change has impacts that cannot be overstated. The means of communications, logistics, access to information, the avenues for deal making and execution and almost everything else are being changed by emergent technologies in ways nobody fully understands.

Another part of what is happening is increased demand for traditional commodities. New industrial societies are making demands on these resources and increasing the competition for them. This is more than an inflation problem as this is not so much a devaluation of money as it is an increasing value of the commodity itself.

I know, I know, either way money is worth less than it was and an economist will call that inflation. However, it is not inflation brought on by government fiscal and monetary policy so much as it is another (like the emergent technologies) fundamental, structural change in world commerce and economics. As such, the two economic “orthodoxies” discussed aren’t particularly pertinent to the matter.

What do you think the new orthodoxy should be?

If my belief, that our current economic situation is due to fundamental, structural changes in commerce more than any set of government policies, is correct, then governments have to hunker down and fund the essentials and not fund the non-essentials. During the transition from the “old economy” to the “new economy” (that is, from the old equilibrium to the new one) governments have to attempt to curb all their excesses whether those are debt, military adventurism, inflation or whatever.

Beyond believing that the Paulson plan of saving the banks first was a big mistake, I don’t really know what is essential and what isn’t. The various governments are going to have to sort that out for themselves. What is very clear is that the U S debt structure is not sustainable policy and has not been for a very long time. The long term trade policy is also unsustainable. Perhaps the commitment to domestic social services is unsustainable. It is almost certainly true that our current commitment to be the world’s policeman is unsustainable. Which, among these and other public policy commitments, we cut loose and which we keep is a decision our society, and every other society on the planet, is going to have to make. We are always in the process of making decisions like this. If we fail to continue to do so by cutting loose enough of these commitments to make a difference to our debt we will soon be a failed experiment in governance.

Likewise, if we adopt a policy of significant tax cuts without something on the order of three or four to one spending reductions to go along with the cuts, that too will prove fatally irresponsible.

Finally, in answer to this question, I believe no orthodoxy is always preferable to any orthodoxy. Orthodoxies are a convenient barrier between humans and the requirement that we think.

Are we in a vaguely analogous situation to Jefferson’s assessment of slavery–afraid to continue to hold the wolf by the ears and afraid to let go?

When the fundamentals of a society’s commerce and economy shift it is almost always the case that the “elites” of the old equilibrium lack the imagination to see beyond the abyss. They can, like Mr. Jefferson, see the looming disaster but cannot see what lies beyond. They usually solve this problem by starting a war with someone. The war usually results in some sort of imposed fundamental change and society buries its dead and moves on.

To this extent, the proposed analogy has meaning. When President Carter freed capital to flow in and between nations pretty much free of government interference (a major step in the nation’s long standing export replacement policy, sometimes called “free trade”) it made a big difference in the entire financial structure of the planet. The repercussions of this decision have not yet fully played out. It may well be that the old equilibrium’s structure based on “money centers” like New York, may be obsolete. Whether they are or aren’t, the financial structure of the Earth is not yet resettled from the great unbundling of money movement from government regulation.

If I am right about that then your analogy is spot on. The great viziers of money, the Paulsons and the Geithners and the Bernankes of this world are either lying to us or to themselves and us or are simply clueless.

If they are, as I suspect, clueless, then they, like Mr. Jefferson, can see the dark wall of the hurricane coming but cannot see what is on the other side.

Have we inflated our economy so much that we cannot chance market forces taking over?

Whatever is to come, it will be less painful with a stable dollar than it will be with an unstable dollar. That said I don’t believe there is any panacea in “market forces.” If left unregulated, market forces move toward some sort of stabilization that is tantamount to monopolies and or flat out rigged business. People on the political right use the term “market forces” as if it was some magic talisman. It is a phrase that has no meaning other than a sham.

Is Obama’s freeze proposal a good idea or populist piffle and pablum?

Probably it is neither. It is a step toward making the decision about what to cut loose and what to keep. Since it will only result in a 250 billion dollar saving and not before 2020, it isn’t even that big of a step.

* Of course, in the interest of full disclosure, it must be admitted that I also still believe in Santa Clause.

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9 Responses to “Five Questions”

  1. Mike Cox mike cox says:

    A Birmingham Southern degree trumps what little I know about economic theory and policy, and most of the folks who live in Mobile are smarter than I am. However, if we are to rely on current politicians to remove us from this mess, or the 1% of the population that qualifies as super rich to rectify things and save the day for the rest of us, I’m afraid we are screwed.

  2. Well then, we should not rely upon them.

  3. Mike Cox mike cox says:

    I agree. What do we do and how?

  4. Mike,

    The primary distinction, the only truly meaningful one, between the two major political parties in the United States is that Republican elected officials respect and fear their core constituents and Democratic elected officials do neither. Absolutely everything that is wrong with this country flows from this distinction.

    Republican elected officials support and vote and do things they know are crazy because of their fear and respect for their base. Democratic officials allow that stupidity to go on because they do not respect or fear their base. In fact, Democratic elected officials have far more respect for and fear of the Republican base than they do their own. This is not hard as Democrats have none of either for their own base.

    So, the first thing any Democrat must accept is that, when looking for the root problem of all the problems the country faces, they need look no further than themselves. It is the passivity of the Democratic base, even more than the cowardice and venality of the Democratic elected officials, to blame for this situation.

    Whenever I have made this observation to my Democratic friends they have told me that they remain calm and passive in the face of Republican rage and unreason “because we love our country and if we act like they do civil war will ensue.” Perhaps, though highly unlikely, this is true. On the other hand, is love of country best expressed by passively allowing great evil to be perpetrated? Or, is love of country best expressed by a willingness to resist? Put another way, is love of country on the one hand, best expressed, as in Gore vs Bush, by a coordinated approach between mobs attacking and shutting down the vote count in Dade County long enough for the Bush legal team to turn the U S Supreme Court into the Chicago Board of Aldermen or, on the other hand, the dignified and passive acquiescence of Al Gore to the theft of the Presidency?

    No doubt Jesus Christ would answer that passivity is the better response. But he would do so because it is the better expression of love of your fellow man, not the better example of love of country. I would not presume to say love of country should take precedence over love of your fellow man. (I would not ever contradict the teaching of Jesus. Neither would I commit the blasphemy of wrapping myself in Christ to further my political agenda. People who do so clearly do not believe in Jesus, whatever party or political point of view they espouse. People who take secular, political positions because “Jesus tells them to,” either have never read the New Testament or did and don’t believe it or simply do not understand it.)

    Well, back to the controversial stuff, to “do something” the core constituency could leave the Democratic Party and form another. Third parties don’t have a very long life in United States politics. On the other hand, the Democratic Party is very old and it could be time for it to die. If that is the case, a new party on the left could be viable.

    Another option is to make sure every Senate and Congressional candidate has primary opposition from someone significantly left of center. This will result in a lot of Lieberman crap and Republicans being elected in otherwise safe democratic districts and states. (Though after MA is there a safe Democratic state?) It could actually result in the death of the Party altogether. However it came out, the Party, to the extent it still existed, would be composed of elected officials who either agreed politically with their political base or were scared to death of them.

    Whoever these survivors were, they would not be easily dealt with by the new Republican majority, assuming the political fallout was so bad as to result in a Republican majority. Nor could the Community Organizer in Chief fart around with the new guys. Obama would either get out in front of them and lead or be run over by them in the next set of Presidential primaries. Either way, it would be a change I can believe in.

    I know it sounds drastic, but there is no other way. For the left to have a meaningful voice in this nation’s politics we have to have our Goldwater moment. The New Democratic Coalition is going to have to go the way of the Ripon Society before any potential turnaround is possible.

    Before everybody goes all “you a crazy bastard” on me, an allegation that may well be true but not helpful even if so, let me remind you of the situation. Corporations can now spend as much as they want on political issues and campaigns. Do you think our current set of Congressmen and women and Senators, or this President, will do anything about that? There will probably be no real health care reform. However, who among you do not believe the various corporate interests involved in health care will not take advantage of the Democratic Party’s need to be seen “doing something” to push through some change that screw patients in some ghastly fashion? We are allowing the banks to conduct a vast, unimaginable (except since it is happening someone must have imagined it) transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthiest people on Earth. This is a transfer from the American middle class of wealth not just to wealthy Americans, but the world wide wealthy. Who among you believe the Democratic leadership will do anything to stop, much less reverse, this? We are fighting two wars and have no idea how to resolve either without making a bigger mess. Our leadership can get away with it politically because there is no draft. Unfortunately, these wars require that more and more of our national treasury go to supporting our professional army in these endeavors. Do any of you think any of the current leadership has any solution to any of problems attendant to this international police work?

    I could go on. How about our dwindling manufacturing base? How about illegal immigration? How about our failing public schools? How about our deteriorating infrastructure? What about the enormous debt the ever undisciplined Baby Boomers are preparing to pass on to our children and grandchildren? What about universal health care?

    The truth is the Democratic Party is a gutless, spineless amalgamation of political opportunists. The fact is all problems of the nation are due to the previous fact and nothing more. The fact is it is nobody else’s fault. The fact is that, if you consider yourself a member of this Party, it is your fault because you have allowed it to happen.

  5. George says:

    I’ve had so much trouble understanding exactly what the Bush administration or the Obama administration was/is trying to accomplish. I have yet to hear the reasoning behind bailing out all of the big financial companies. What the hell does too big to fail mean? What would have happened if they had failed? If it meant that all of the people who had insurance policies with AIG had to find other insurance companies then I’m pretty sure that someone would have been around to pick them up. So what would have happened to all the employees of the big companies? They lose that job but with the remaining companies picking up tons of new policies they probably would have hired a lot of those people. If Freddie Mac or Fanny Mae had gone under what would have happened to those loans? I’m guessing Wells Fargo who services my mortgage would have continued to demand that I pay my house payment until someone figured out what was going to happen next. I wish our gov’t would have just stayed out of the way. Same for the auto industry, Detroit was building cars that no body wanted. Why not just let them go out of business? Some one would have figured out how to fill the void. Capitalism seems so easy but our gov’t seems to make it so hard. My solution to all of this is just get out of the middle east and use the money we save there to give me a half a million tax payer dollars and I’ll be happy and the economy will not seem so bad. Problem solved.

  6. Brenden Brenden says:

    Since you asked, my two cents. Don’t overthink Keynesian economics. The bottom line is that expenditure from whatever source should go toward productive investment. You also rightly point out that corrupt (mostly Democrat) politicans redistribute wealth in staggaringly unproductive ways: Amtrak, Fannie & Fred, and God forbid that a Democrat utter a serious thought about making Medicare and Social Security solvent.

    The other perspective is cutting taxes. Under this theory, we presume that corporations and individuals left to keep the wealth they create will be more likely to invest that wealth productively. Obviously they could not possibly invest it any less productively than the gov’t. I know Democrats cannot possibly believe this, but Bush ran this experiment after he was elected — resulting in a net increase in federal tax revenue from economic growth in an investement friendly climate. Of course he pissed our money away on a laundry list of other misadventures and leftist accomodations.

    Mike you talk about the Democrat base: what do they believe exactly? I keep hearing things about no wars and universal welfare: medical care, guaranteed retirement income, restrained trade, organized labor protections and wealth redistribution. I hope you understand that all of the above will catastrophically ruin the economy — because you don’t offer a way to pay for any of it! You eliminate any possible means of paying by these compounding self-defeating objectives. But maybe there’s other stuff you all believe that I don’t know about. Oh yeah: controling the weather.

    Oh yeah, I forgot the longest pole in the Democrat tent! The Democrat left is dedicated to the proposition that the greatest threat to national security is a cabal of GOP racists drinking the Klan-aid out of their Fox News coffee cups. Democrats employ this tactic to spread fear (read: gain votes) among minorities to convince them they need the protection of the Democrat party. A theory which, ironically, insists upon minorities’ racial inferiority as a predicate to the necessity of the Democrats’ protection. A proposition which, by definition, is racist. The worst outcome for the Democrat party would be truly race-neutral society where achievement and opportunity defined success. Which is why I also ask, stupid or evil or both?

    This statement is attributed to Thomas Jefferson, known slaveholder, but I believe it has the benefit of being true: “A gov’t big enough to supply you with everything you need is big enough to take everything you have.”

    Such is the stated objective of Rahm “Never waste a crisis” Emmanuel and his boss. They’re trying to convince the American public that we desperately need them to supply us with everything we want in order to gain control of everything we have. It’s obviously difficult to offer a ringing endorsement to the GOP but the fact is they are the only party who has ever seriously attempted to rein the destructive forces of Fannie and Freddie, insolvent welfare (kudos to Clinton, too, for moving the ball there) and they’re defintely more serious about the real threat of Islamist terrorism. At least they’re not giving known foreign terrorists expensive Constitutional protections and due process, an absolute effing outrage.

    I agree that the solution to too-big-to-fail is too-small-to-care. You plunder your shareholders, that’s their problem. You made crappy loans, you’re problem. George points out that left to the market, assets will be repriced according to their value and the risk-takers can book the losses. Unwind the banks from the gov’t (but do keep the central bank). It’s not right that the taxpayers pay for politicians’ corruption but we give them the power to do so, especially Democrats, hence the fault lies not our stars….

    That was cathartic.

  7. Gita M. Smith Gita says:

    Guys, guys: Can we have a discussion about economic theories without bashing the Democratic Party for just five minutes?

    We know what has not worked. Trickle-down economics for one. Unprotected trade with Asia, for another. Unregulated banks for a third. In my humble opinion, we have placed too much responsibility on the Federal Reerve Board, for another.

    When the financial tapioca hit the fan and the U.S. economy went into a death spiral, THe same did not happen in Canada because the banks and lending agencies are very heavily regulated there. Normally, the Canadian dollar and economy follow the U.S. like a shadow, but this time, no. That should tell us something about good governance.

  8. Mike Copeland T M Copeland says:

    Brenden,

    Good to hear from you.

    First, it is grossly unfair to accuse me of over thinking anything. I assure you that has never happened and never will. Be the subject Keysian economics or the Easter Bunny, I will not over think it.

    Second, though I am not a Democrat and am loath to have to defend their honor, a person would have to be completely delusional to believe that, on a per capita basis, there are more corrupt Democrats than there are corrupt Republicans. Indeed, I assume the per capita ratio of scum to good guys is more or less even in the parties.

    Granted there are, for the moment, one hell of a lot more elected Democrats than Republicans and, therefore, likely greater absolute numbers of Democratic scum than Republican scum. Do not forget, however, the blatant corruption of the Republicans during the heyday of Cheney/Abramoff, not to mention all the current AIG mess, was mostly Republican in origin.

    That said, your central point, of there being lots and lots of creepy, crawly Democrats to go around, is valid.

    Third, though pretty much a leftist, I am not a Democrat and cannot illuminate for you what they may believe in. My response to Mike Cox was aimed at diagnosing the basic functional problem with the Democratic Party and how, when the supposed party of the left cowers in a corner, albeit a corner crowded with a super majority, and fails to come forward with any agenda for governing the country, it allows the worst excesses of the nutty right to prevail.

    I have heard it said that prior to Bush the lesser, the politicians in Israel counted on the United States to impose moderation on them. When Bush/Cheney freed the Israeli politicians from external governance the Israelis continued to espouse the most heinous and ridiculous policies and programs but now had no one to restrain them. I do not know if that theory is correct as I know very little about that nation and its issues. However, as a metaphor the failure of the left in this country to restrain the insane flights of draconian, far right BS that is now routinely afflicted upon this nation is the source of all our problems.

    There is no left of center political force in the United States. Time after time the majority of the electorate picks progressive candidates only to see them peter out into RIABN (Republicans In All But Name) piss ants. I believe the majority of Americans are consistently progressive/liberal/leftist in their political preferences. Unfortunately, Democrats lack the required spine to lead from and to the left.

    Fourth, you and I share a propensity to express opinions as if they are truths to be universally acknowledged. (Thank you Jane Austen) It simply is not universally true that “no wars, and universal welfare: medical care, guaranteed retirement income, restrained trade, organized labor protections, and wealth distribution…. will catastrophically ruin the economy.” Depending upon the situation, any and all of these things could well lead us into a new era of prosperity and cultural expansion. In other circumstances any and all of them may well have a deleterious effect. Regardless if it is those on the left or those on the right who slavishly kowtow to a “philosophy” of one economic dogma or another, it is a simple minded way of looking at the world. As I know you are not simple minded and I suspect you are no slave, I assume you are an advocate pushing until you get pushed back. The fact that the Democratic Party has no will to push back pretty much sums up the current mess.

    Fifth, I have never called anybody a racist, even people I know to be, by their own admission, racist. I do not do it as I do not presume to look into the heart of another man. I can’t even see clearly into my own. I certainly hope no one has accused you of that particular stupidity.

    Fifth, your assertion that investment in “government,” by that I assume you mean public service programs and social service programs (should be of a mind to make that distinction), is always, more or less, throwing money down a rat hole, is demonstrably false. Public service programs and social service programs have, from the beginning of political entities, been very useful and ‘profitable’ investments for societies to make.

    If, as the political scientists say, there are five forms of polities, clan/family, tribe, city state, empire and nation state (some political scientists add a sixth, the multi national corporation, of which the following statement is equally true),* there are examples aplenty of how these political units used investment in government to enhance wealth, power and cultural growth for both the political entity and the citizens of the entity. Indeed, an argument can be made that the natural evolution of these polities has resulted, in large part, due to each succeeding polity’s advantages in making just such investments over the type of polity it supplanted.

    Before you hyperventilate, allow me to add that there are plenty of examples, for each type polity, of misguided “investments” in government that led to ruin and damnation. That being so, it is the wisdom of the investment being made, or failing to be made, that is important, not some hard an fast philosophical bench mark that must be obeyed or destruction ensues.

    The brilliance of our political system is supposed to be that competing ideas of what these investments should be clash in the political “marketplace.” The result of this clash is supposed to be something like wise decisions. Unfortunately, when one side, in the current case the left, bends over and says, “Yes sir, please do me again.” to an obliging right wing bugger, the country gets screwed.

    I hope you find this helpful.

    * I have listed these polities in the order of their generally accepted appearance upon the planet.

  9. Frank Povah Frank Povah says:

    Mike: Thought-provoking stuff, even to an economics ignoramus like myself. I agree wholeheartedly with your comment that “There is no left of center political force in the United States”. I’d also add that the “conservative” and not-so-conservative definition of “liberal” is to an Australian almost laughable. You also mention multi-nationals. The multi-national corporation is now a thing of the past – or soon will be. These giants can no longer be called even “global’; they are in fact a-national will-o’-the-wisps. So we are stuck with two seemingly insurmountable obstacles: (1) Money has become something that is valued for itself – the Midacian view of economics; (2) Governments throughout the “developed” countries have, or are in an ongoing process of being bullied, coerced/bribed or just plain outspent by a-national, discorporate commercialists into withdrawing from any social responsibility.

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Mike Copeland
About the author Mike Copeland: I am sixty-one years old, married with three grown children. I have a B. A. from Birmingham Southern College and a Master's in City Planning from Georgia Tech. I have worked in SC State government for over a decade leaving as the Deputy Executive Director of the State Budget and Control Board, the state's administrative agency. I have owned the Fontane Company since 1984 and am the managing member of viscerality.com.llc (www.viscerality.com) amd technology management, marketing and consulting company.

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